Chainlink (LINK) price looks set for a positive start to October after delivering a stellar 30% upswing this month. However, the underlying on-chain market data reveals mixed signals.
After a successful tokenization test with SWIFT in early September, Chainlink also announced the mainnet launch of its Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol on Wednesday.
Can the bullish speculative traders capitalize on these landmark product advancements to overpower the bearish whales in October?
Speculative Traders are Pining For a Positive Start to October
Chainlink price has delivered 30% gains this month, rising from $5.80 on August 31 to $7.90 on September 28. But despite the double-digit percentage gains, bullish traders in the LINK Derivatives markets are gunning for more profit in October.
According to data compiled from CoinAlyze, Chainlink Open Interest stood at $91 million at the close of September 17. But since then, it has increased to $182 million as of September 28.
This shows that speculative traders have dialed in additional capital inflows of $91 million within the last 10 trading days.
Chainlink (LINK) Aggregated Open Interest vs. Price. Source: Coinalyze
Open Interest summarizes the total value of active derivatives contracts for an asset across various Futures trading platforms. An uptrend in Open Interest is a bullish signal, indicating an influx of new investors bringing fresh capital into the market.
When Open Interest rises persistently, it suggests a prevailing belief among market participants that the current price direction will remain dominant.
If this expectation holds true, the LINK price could extend its bullish performances into October and beyond.
Chainlink Whales are Booking Profits as Price Approaches Key Resistance Levels
Chainlink price hit the $7 mark on Monday for the first time in 40 days. Once the LINK price hit that key resistance level, a cohort of crypto whales halted their month-long buying trend and began booking profits aggressively.
Whale investors holding 100,000 to 10 million LINK had 292.3 million tokens in their cumulative wallet balances on September 24. But the chart below shows that figure has now dropped to 291.3 million as of September 28
This implies they have depleted their balances by 1 million tokens since Chainlink’s price hit the $7 mark on Monday.
Chainlink (LINK) Whales Wallet Balances vs. Price. Source: Santiment
Valued at the current market price of $7.8, the 1 million LINK tokens recently sold by the whales are worth approximately $7.8 million.
Typically, such selling activity from whale investors often drives market prices downward. However, the chart above illustrates that a contrarian trend has emerged, with LINK price edging closer to $8 despite the whale’s small selling pressure.
In conclusion, it appears that the bullish speculative traders currently have the upper hand. If the price uptrend is sustained, the whales will likely reconsider their bearish stance.
LINK Price Prediction: $11 is a Viable Target
Considering the successful product launches and landmark partnerships underpinning the ongoing Chainlink price rally, the bulls could set sights on reclaiming the $11 territory.
The Global In/Out of Money Around Price (GIOM) data, which depicts the entry price distribution of current LINK investors, also adds some credence to this prediction.
It shows that if Chainlink scales the initial sell-wall at $8, the bullish speculative traders could drive the spot prices toward $11.
As shown below, the 57,610 addresses bought 28.64 million LINK at an average price of $10.70. They could inadvertently knock back the LINK price rally if they close their positions.
But if the whale investors flip bullish again as predicted, the Chainlink price could hit $11.
Chainlink (LINK) GIOM data. Source: IntoTheBlock
Yet, the bears could negate this bullish prediction if the Chainlink price retraces below $5. However, the chart depicts that 69,630 addresses had bought 531.8 million LINK at the average price of $6.50.
Considering this is the largest cluster of LINK holders, they will likely have enough in the tank to fend off the bears.
But if Chainlink fails to defend that vital support level, it could trigger a prolonged downswing toward $5.
