Ripple (XRP) has reportedly engaged the New Zealand government in talks to collaborate on a CBDC project. The perception of legitimacy from the landmark victory against the SEC appears to have spurred global XRP adoption. Is this sufficient to forecast another triple-digit price pump?
One month after the landmark Ripple’s victory over the SEC, XRP has witnessed a persistent spike in global adoption. Earlier this week, reports emerged that Ripple is now engaging the New Zealand government in talks to collaborate on a CBDC project.
This would be another country joining the likes of Colombia and the Western Pacific Island state of Palau to show interest in Ripple’s CBDC-onboarding platform
Underlying on-chain analysis examines network effects if the adoption growth could validate another $1 XRP rally forecast.
Network Activity Spikes Suggest XRP Global Adoption is on the Rise
Critical on-chain data trends in August appear to validate the recent media headlines surrounding XRP’s global adoption growth.
Indicatively, the Santiment chart below illustrates that XRP has witnessed not only noticeable but also consistent spikes in Daily Active Addresses (DAA).
The chart below depicts that XRP attracted more than 100,000 active users in at least 12 of the last 16 trading days since July 31.
For proper context, before July 31, XRP had attracted 100,000 DAA in only 15 days, sporadically, since the start of 2023.
Ripple (XRP) Price Forecast | Daily Active Addresses, August 2023. | Source: Santiment
The Daily Active Addresses (DAA) data trend measures the daily number of active network participants performing transactions. It signals growing demand and transactional activity across the blockchain network when it increases.
And notably, over the last 4 months, XRP price has often entered a rally when DAA surpasses the 100,000 mark.
If this historical pattern reoccurs, it could validate thhe forecast of another XRP price rally in the coming weeks.
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The Price Momentum Has Tilted Slightly in Favor of the Bulls
According to the Relative Strength Index data, the XRP bulls appear to have gained some ground after an underwhelming start to the month. As shown below, XRP started crashing from 55.6 to 41.72 in the first week of August.
However, between August 7 and August 15, XRP RSI has since increased marginally from 41.72 to 43.5.
Ripple (XRP) Price Forecast | Daily RSI data, August 2023. | Source: CryptoWaves
The Relative Strength Index data evaluates the strength and momentum of an asset’s current price trend. When the RSI trends upwards within the neutral zone, it suggests a growing accumulation trend.
And given that XRP RSI is currently far from an overbought status, it leaves room for a significant price surge if the positive momentum strengthens.
In summary, the persistent growth in XRP adoption and network activity appears to have shifted the market sentiment in favor of the bulls.
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XRP Price Prediction: The Bulls Could Retest $0.80
If the spike in network demand persists, it could propel XRP price toward to $0.80 milestone during its next bull rally. This view is validated by the MVRV ratio, which evaluates the net-financial position of current XRP holders.
The chart below shows that most investors that bought XRP in the last 30 days are now looking at a 9% unrealized loss. Based on historical trends, investors will likely hold until they break even around the $0.69 mark again.
However, considering the growing global adoption, the bulls could smash past that resistance to reclaim the $0.80 milestone.
Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction | MVRV ratio, August 2023. Source: Santiment
Conversely, the XRP bears could force another negative XRP price forecast if it drops below $0.55. However, the current holders will look to mount a buy wall around $0.59 to avoid booking losses greater than 15%.
Although unlikely, the XRP price could decline further toward $0.55 if that buy-wall caves.
